There are two constants which have not changed with the arrest of Maduro. The people of Venezuela will not tolerate a new government which allows the US to effectively govern them and control their oil. The second constant is the price of oil dictates petroleum geopolitics.
Trump's mantra of "Drill Baby Drill." is 100% dependent on the oil companies' willingness to drill.
The other day for a few days gas was $2.11. The oil and gas companies will not drill past a certain point. While the oil and gas is free below the surface, accessing it is not free.
Why has Trump been attacking wind energy? He knows that the oil and gas industry is pumping less because of the wind industry. He believes by getting rid of the wind industry oil demand will go up, thereby making us even more dependent on oil and gas. Trump is all folly.
First of all, who is going to pay to put Venezuelan oil back online? Why would an oil company invest in a very destabilized county like Venezuela for new oil, when the price of oil is already nearing the point any lower will damage the industry.
Unless you can rebuild Venezuela overnight, the people will not tolerate the takeover of their oil and gas fields by foreign companies or countries. Will Trump respond by squashing protests in Caracas?
The two constants in this case makes it impossible for Trump to pump any significant amount of oil in Venezuela.
WHO WILL SUFFER FIRST
Nicaragua and Cuba will suffer almost immediately as oil exports from Venezuela come to a near standstill. But this is not a sure thing. I believe Trump believes Cuba and Nicaragua will fall without the fuel, so an invasion is not needed. This may be true, but it is contingent on Venezuela cutting off the oil and gas.
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